Grain Market Update

By Nathan Flores, Associate Grain Originator

As fall harvest winds down across Kansas, the story in the grain markets is one of strong yields, shifting demand, and global uncertainty. With export data on pause and geopolitical developments stirring speculation, producers and traders alike are navigating a market that’s rich in potential — but short on clarity.

Timely rains and strong growing conditions for CORN have resulted in a good-to-excellent harvest in parts of Kansas. While market enthusiasm for a potential Trump-Xi Jinping meeting persists, the government shutdown has put a hold on export sales reporting, prompting the market to rely on private-sector assessments of U.S. exports. The size of our local harvest has put pressure on elevator basis, with end users pulling back bids as the bushels keep rolling in. With the lack of USDA reports like the WASDE, the market continues to question crop yields as reports come in variable across the country.

MILO presents a bleaker picture, as good yields and an abundant supply paired with limited demand have significantly impacted cash prices on both the futures and basis side. One of the biggest challenges we face is a lack of Chinese demand, who has been our largest buyer in the past. In today's geopolitical landscape, fluctuating trade relationships with other countries make it uncertain and difficult to predict pricing. In the absence of Chinese exports, milo is competing as a substitute for corn in ethanol and feed markets.

WHEAT rallies on commodity optimism, hitting 14-day highs recently, as the market anticipates something positive from the sit-down between Trump and Xi Jinping. There have been rumors of wheat purchases from the Pacific Northwest (PNW), possibly bound for China. However, without the flash sales system, we cannot officially confirm these reports. Ahead of their wheat crop, there may be weather concerns. There may be a need to blend stocks if adverse weather affects China's harvest. The U.S. could be a potential source for these blending stocks. There is a possibility that these could be token purchases, which could be seen as a conciliatory gesture. These purchases are not fixed and could be leveraged or canceled if negotiations falter. Further fueling the market are recent U.S. sanctions against Russia’s two largest oil companies.

China's potential SOYBEAN purchases are driving market speculation and providing some support. Due to tariffs, these purchases require government dispensation, which may occur if the buyer is state-owned or if the purchase anticipates favorable outcomes from upcoming talks. Currently, rumors are fueling bullish sentiment, leading to increased buying in the soybean market by speculators seeking quick returns. Trump remains optimistic about the meeting with President Xi, in which soybeans are expected to be a key talking point.

Have questions or ready to plan ahead? Reach out to the GCC Grain Team — we’re here to help you build marketing strategies that fit your operation and make the most of this season’s opportunities.